Comments on: A simple way to improve your estimating (and a cool pub trick) – Conclusion http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/ After much frustration, it seems DEFAULT is the way to go... Mon, 15 Mar 2010 19:32:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: admin http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-20923 admin Thu, 21 Jan 2010 05:26:30 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-20923 Interesting rationale there. This is obviously going to be opinionated, but George W Bush went with his gut too and look at the result of that. But your right in that respect. Has he been proven wrong? Depends on who you ask. The cognitive bias about your gut-feel estimates being "right" is also subject to a proven cognitive biases. Take your pick from: Choice-supportive bias, confirmation bias and negavity bias (in particular). Furthermore your "gut feel" is easy to test. If you took a series of true/false questions and your gut told you you are 90% accurate, then if say there were 50 questions, then 45 should be right. If only 30 are right then your gut feel is not as accurate as you think it is. if you retook this test with different over and over again, and you never reach the 45 out of 50, then your "gut feeling" is itself shaped very likely by the three biases I listed. Take a look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases Interesting rationale there. This is obviously going to be opinionated, but George W Bush went with his gut too and look at the result of that. But your right in that respect. Has he been proven wrong? Depends on who you ask.

The cognitive bias about your gut-feel estimates being “right” is also subject to a proven cognitive biases. Take your pick from:

Choice-supportive bias, confirmation bias and negavity bias (in particular).

Furthermore your “gut feel” is easy to test. If you took a series of true/false questions and your gut told you you are 90% accurate, then if say there were 50 questions, then 45 should be right.

If only 30 are right then your gut feel is not as accurate as you think it is.

if you retook this test with different over and over again, and you never reach the 45 out of 50, then your “gut feeling” is itself shaped very likely by the three biases I listed.

Take a look here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

]]> By: Mintcake http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-20919 Mintcake Thu, 21 Jan 2010 03:34:22 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-20919 I reckon I would mostly stick with my estimate rather than take the marble, not because I have a pessimist bias but because I have proved my gut-feel estimates to be right often enough to trust them :-) Plus picking the wrong marble is a definite lose, whereas if I stick with my estimate it's up to you to prove me wrong :-D I reckon I would mostly stick with my estimate rather than take the marble, not because I have a pessimist bias but because I have proved my gut-feel estimates to be right often enough to trust them :-)

Plus picking the wrong marble is a definite lose, whereas if I stick with my estimate it’s up to you to prove me wrong :-D

]]> By: Reconnaître les biais possibles en estimation | Eric Provost .net http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18993 Reconnaître les biais possibles en estimation | Eric Provost .net Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:02:21 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18993 [...] http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-t... var addthis_pub = ''; var addthis_language = 'fr';var addthis_options = 'email, favorites, digg, delicious, myspace, google, facebook, reddit, live, more'; Ceci pourrait vous intéresser...10 décembre 2009 -- La réelle valeur des médias sociaux pour les entreprises3 décembre 2009 -- Pourquoi l’analyste ne fait pas un bon chargé de projet3 décembre 2009 -- Introduire un nouvel analyste sur un projet Catégories: Méthodologie & pratiquesTags: Analyse d'affaires [...] [...] http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-t... var addthis_pub = ''; var addthis_language = 'fr';var addthis_options = 'email, favorites, digg, delicious, myspace, google, facebook, reddit, live, more'; Ceci pourrait vous intéresser…10 décembre 2009 — La réelle valeur des médias sociaux pour les entreprises3 décembre 2009 — Pourquoi l’analyste ne fait pas un bon chargé de projet3 décembre 2009 — Introduire un nouvel analyste sur un projet Catégories: Méthodologie & pratiquesTags: Analyse d'affaires [...]

]]> By: admin http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18755 admin Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:25:27 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18755 Hi Michael The experience thing is simply trusting yourself and resisting coercion into making your estimate fit nicer into a project plan. If you are asked to do this, then the plan is flawed, assuming you are calibrated. People often forget what estimating actually is and that is a big challenge in itself. I have another article about the flaws of decomposition based estimating and process optimisation (ie creating a work breakdown structure), but thats going into a book instead so you are gonna have to wait :-) regards Paul Hi Michael

The experience thing is simply trusting yourself and resisting coercion into making your estimate fit nicer into a project plan. If you are asked to do this, then the plan is flawed, assuming you are calibrated. People often forget what estimating actually is and that is a big challenge in itself. I have another article about the flaws of decomposition based estimating and process optimisation (ie creating a work breakdown structure), but thats going into a book instead so you are gonna have to wait :-)

regards

Paul

]]> By: Michhes http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18701 Michhes Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:17:57 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18701 Interesting approach Paul. So if you're comparing your own estimates against actuals, have you yourself improved as an estimator, ruling out increased experience? Interesting approach Paul. So if you’re comparing your own estimates against actuals, have you yourself improved as an estimator, ruling out increased experience?

]]> By: admin http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18278 admin Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:10:25 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18278 Hey JT I have made a habit of answering such questions in a range. I prefer being vaguely right than precisely wrong. Then when the ineviable complaint comes that the range is too wide, I then argue that a workshop will help me reduce my uncertainy. Hubbard takes this considerably further than me with his concept of the value of perfect information stuff where he quantifies whether the amount of effort required it worth the gain of reduced uncertainy. Most of my clients are happy to spend a couple of extra hours to reduce uncertainty significantly. It is amazing how face to face dialogue can do this. From my point of view, the simple logic of the 90% test is sufficient to warrant further investigation. A client of mine recently said to me "Confidence is the feeling you have before you really understand the problem" and I think that is a particularly insightful quote. Interestingly, the argument that the person doing the estimating is not the persion doing the work violates a lot of that I stand for principalwise, and dialogue mapping is my tool of choice for dealing with this (check this article for more on this angle http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/09/18/am-i-a-business-analyst-what-about-those-calling-themselves-bas/). At the end of the day, if this methods causes people to stop and reconsider an estimate, then it has had its intended effect. regards Paul Hey JT

I have made a habit of answering such questions in a range. I prefer being vaguely right than precisely wrong. Then when the ineviable complaint comes that the range is too wide, I then argue that a workshop will help me reduce my uncertainy. Hubbard takes this considerably further than me with his concept of the value of perfect information stuff where he quantifies whether the amount of effort required it worth the gain of reduced uncertainy. Most of my clients are happy to spend a couple of extra hours to reduce uncertainty significantly. It is amazing how face to face dialogue can do this.

From my point of view, the simple logic of the 90% test is sufficient to warrant further investigation. A client of mine recently said to me “Confidence is the feeling you have before you really understand the problem” and I think that is a particularly insightful quote.

Interestingly, the argument that the person doing the estimating is not the persion doing the work violates a lot of that I stand for principalwise, and dialogue mapping is my tool of choice for dealing with this (check this article for more on this angle http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/09/18/am-i-a-business-analyst-what-about-those-calling-themselves-bas/).

At the end of the day, if this methods causes people to stop and reconsider an estimate, then it has had its intended effect.

regards

Paul

]]> By: JT http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18274 JT Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:31:44 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18274 Not a bad theory, I'll give it a ride. I do however like the first guys point of knowing that the marbles is 90% versus feeling your estimate is 90%. I'd take the marbles. This cognitive bias stuff sounds interesting to me, it'll give me something to look into on a lazy friday. Hey, just in case you're looking for something to do, you could write more on the estimation process if you want as it's something that my group struggles with on a regular basis. I come from a perspective of "under promise, over deliver" so my estimates often come in high. It's usually tougher for the customer to swallow up front but it protects me in the end. We also run into problems where we have to do estimates based on sales calls/information where we don't even get to talk to the customer first hand. Also, the person doing the estimate is often not the individual that's doing the implementing so there may be a gap in skill sets. We try and build for a certain amount of scope creep as we feel it gives us leverage and we all know it happens. It seems to be a crap shoot on projects that come in under or on time. So how much of the problem is the estimate and how much is controlling the project? Either way, good stuff as always. Not a bad theory, I’ll give it a ride. I do however like the first guys point of knowing that the marbles is 90% versus feeling your estimate is 90%. I’d take the marbles.
This cognitive bias stuff sounds interesting to me, it’ll give me something to look into on a lazy friday.
Hey, just in case you’re looking for something to do, you could write more on the estimation process if you want as it’s something that my group struggles with on a regular basis. I come from a perspective of “under promise, over deliver” so my estimates often come in high. It’s usually tougher for the customer to swallow up front but it protects me in the end. We also run into problems where we have to do estimates based on sales calls/information where we don’t even get to talk to the customer first hand. Also, the person doing the estimate is often not the individual that’s doing the implementing so there may be a gap in skill sets. We try and build for a certain amount of scope creep as we feel it gives us leverage and we all know it happens. It seems to be a crap shoot on projects that come in under or on time. So how much of the problem is the estimate and how much is controlling the project?

Either way, good stuff as always.

]]> By: admin http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18188 admin Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:49:45 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18188 Yes I would take it in the way you describe... and therefore as a PM I would not have much faith in your estimate ;-) If you are aware of your overconfidence, you should change your estimate to a wider range until you feel that the marble *feels* the same as your range. In doing so, you are self calibrating and accounting for your optimism bias. As I PM I might whine about the width of the range, but at the end of the day I shouldn't force or coerce you to be more confident unless I provide you with more time to think about it, or more information to help you reduce your ranged estimate to a range that I can work with. To do anything less is to perpetuate the problem. Asking for an estimate and then saying something like "that estimate is not good enough - halve it" is a pretty big warning sign in my book. regards Paul Yes I would take it in the way you describe… and therefore as a PM I would not have much faith in your estimate ;-)

If you are aware of your overconfidence, you should change your estimate to a wider range until you feel that the marble *feels* the same as your range. In doing so, you are self calibrating and accounting for your optimism bias.

As I PM I might whine about the width of the range, but at the end of the day I shouldn’t force or coerce you to be more confident unless I provide you with more time to think about it, or more information to help you reduce your ranged estimate to a range that I can work with. To do anything less is to perpetuate the problem.

Asking for an estimate and then saying something like “that estimate is not good enough – halve it” is a pretty big warning sign in my book.

regards

Paul

]]> By: IT Joe http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18181 IT Joe Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:32:36 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18181 As you explain it, it kind of makes sense. Yet if I choose to take the marble, it means I am aware that my estimate was less than 90% accurate. Would you take it as meaning that I mean aware of my over-confidence ? As you explain it, it kind of makes sense. Yet if I choose to take the marble, it means I am aware that my estimate was less than 90% accurate. Would you take it as meaning that I mean aware of my over-confidence ?

]]> By: admin http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/comment-page-1/#comment-18096 admin Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:11:35 +0000 http://www.cleverworkarounds.com/2009/11/11/a-simple-way-to-improve-your-estimating-and-a-cool-pub-trick-conclusion/#comment-18096 No, if you take the marble, then your estimate must be less than 90% in reality, yet you made that estimate when being asked to be 90$ confident. Therefore, your original estimate was overconfident... make sense? :-) No, if you take the marble, then your estimate must be less than 90% in reality, yet you made that estimate when being asked to be 90$ confident. Therefore, your original estimate was overconfident… make sense? :-)

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